When power batteries are urgently seeking new consumption scenarios other than automobiles, emerging markets have also extended their "olive branches" in time.
It can be seen that lithium batteries are beginning to be applied and replaced at a broader application level. Light vehicles, 5G base stations, power tools, ships, construction machinery (AGV, forklifts, mining trucks) and other fields are accelerating the penetration of lithium batteries.
Recently, Zeng Yuqun, member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, chairman and chief operating officer of CATL, submitted two proposals related to the application and development of lithium batteries, pointing to the "new infrastructure" of electrochemical energy storage and the electrification of construction machinery, aiming to promote energy reform. , in response to the blue sky defense battle.
The background of lithium battery supporting "blooming everywhere" is that the industrial application of lithium battery in the field of electric vehicles has been maturely verified in the past ten years, and the performance improvement and cost reduction brought by large-scale manufacturing, technology iteration, process upgrade, and supply chain management, Supplemented by the relevant blessings of policies, it will lay the foundation for the alternative application of lithium batteries in various fields.
From a short and long-term perspective, the market demand for lithium batteries such as 5G base stations, light vehicles, power tools, TWS, electronic cigarettes, and AGVs has already spread, and the market size can be expected to increase steadily. In the long run, lithium batteries for electrochemical energy storage have been quietly accumulating power, and 48V, the electrification of ships, construction machinery and other "mountains and rains are coming", and a broader market space blueprint has emerged.
Whether it is in the field of automotive power batteries or in emerging application markets, the matching of lithium batteries is accelerating to the center of the stage. The market blueprint has been drawn, and the next step will be the competition of various battery companies in the segmented field.
Light Vehicles: Global Shipments of Lithium Batteries Exceed 11GWh in 2020
The ¡°lead-to-lithium¡± bonus window for electric bicycles has opened, and the demand for lithium batteries in this field has been further activated. Industry data show that in the first quarter of 2020, the domestic sales of lithium batteries for electric light vehicles (including OEMs, sharing and channels) were about 1.14 million units, a significant year-on-year increase.
According to the data of the Lithium Battery Research Institute (GGII) of the High-tech Industrial Research Institute, driven by the strong downstream demand, the shipment of lithium batteries for bicycles in China reached 5.450GWh in 2019, a year-on-year increase of 61.5%. It is expected to increase to 8.448GWh in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 55%.
If you look at the global market, the demand for lithium batteries for electric light vehicles (Note: China's light vehicles are mainly bicycles, so the above is mainly called bicycles) is even more impressive.
GGII data shows that in 2019, the global shipments of lithium batteries for light vehicles reached 8.386GWh, a year-on-year increase of 40.3%. By 2020, the shipments are expected to reach 11.296GWh, a year-on-year increase of 34.7%.
It is worth mentioning that emerging markets such as shared travel, takeaway, and express delivery are growing upward in an explosive curve. As a core supporting link, shared battery swapping has become a new track outlet in the light vehicle lithium battery segment. At present, Internet giants Tencent, Ali, and Meituan have joined the battle one after another.
Gaogong Lithium has learned that the matching ratio of shared motorcycles and batteries is 1:1.5. That is, every 1 million new shared motorcycles will drive about 1GWh of lithium battery demand.
Under the dividend of the new national standard policy, the considerable "lead-to-lithium" wave has attracted many battery companies to participate. From the perspective of the companies participating in the competition, including the deeply rooted Phylion Power, Tianneng, Boliwei, etc., industry giants CATL, ATL, BYD, the cylinder represents Far East Battery, Histar, Lishen, Yiwei, BAK , Zhuoneng, etc.
5G base station: Lithium battery demand will reach 10GWh in 2020
Recently, China Mobile's 2020 centralized procurement bidding for lithium iron phosphate battery products for communications was officially announced. About 1.9GWh of battery procurement supply was divided up by 8 lithium battery companies including Zhongtian Technology, Haistar, and Shuangdeng Group.
The bidding for the 2GWh lithium iron phosphate (new battery) backup power of China Tower has not yet been opened. It can be seen that under the "new base station" outlet, the demand for lithium batteries in 5G base stations is constantly being released.
GGII analysis believes that in 2020, China will vigorously develop 5G and infrastructure projects. Under the two-way driving effect, 5G base stations will be an inevitable trend in 2020. It is conservatively estimated that the demand for newly built and retrofitted 5G base stations in 2020 will reach 10GWh.
At present, the companies participating in the competition in the base station lithium battery market include Zhongtian Technology, Histar, Shuangdeng Group, Narada Power, Topbond and other established companies that have taken root in the field of base station batteries.
At the same time, leading companies CATL, ATL, BYD, and Lishen are also targeting the energy storage and base station markets. Companies with great development potential, including Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Anchi Technology, Penghui Energy, Ruipu Energy, etc., have exerted varying degrees of strength in this market.
It is worth mentioning that, judging from the bidding opening of China Mobile this time, the tax-included unit price of the first winning bidder has been as low as 0.708 yuan/Wh, which is about 40% lower than the highest winning bid limit. The prices of the top eight winning bidders were also lower than 0.78 yuan/Wh.
What needs to be vigilant is that extremely low prices and market preemption thinking may quickly form a reshuffle window, but unprofitable price games may also reduce the safety of products and disrupt the sustainable and healthy development of the industry.
Power tools: 40 billion lithium battery market is waiting to attack
According to industry data, the global power tool market size in 2019 is 31.8 billion US dollars (about 225.2 billion yuan), and according to the compound annual growth rate of 5.5%, by 2024, the global power tool market size will reach 41.7 billion US dollars (about 225.2 billion yuan). 295.3 billion yuan).
Among them, the penetration rate of cordless power tools has exceeded 50%. The cost of lithium batteries accounts for 20%-30%. Based on this rough calculation, by 2024, the global lithium battery market will reach at least RMB 29.53 billion to RMB 44.3 billion.
From the data point of view, Europe and the United States are the fastest growing markets for power tools in recent years. Next, the power tools market in Asia Pacific is expected to grow at the fastest CAGR during the forecast period.
At present, the application of cordless power tools is mainly in the European and American markets, and large enterprises such as TTI, Black & Decker, Bosch, Makita, and Baosade occupy the main market share.
From the perspective of the battery cell supply chain, Samsung SDI, LG, Panasonic, Murata and other international battery companies still occupy the main market share of global power tools, of which Samsung SDI has a market share of more than 50%.
Domestically, Tianpeng Power, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Histar, and Penghui Energy are struggling to catch up. In 2019, the domestic power tool lithium battery shipments were 5.4GWh, a year-on-year increase of 54.8%.
From a trend perspective, based on the accelerated progress of domestic battery cell factories in the field of high-rate cylindrical cells, under the blessing of comprehensive advantages such as performance, scale, and cost, the choice of power tool giants for the battery cell supply chain has obviously turned to China.
This means that by 2024, the 40 billion lithium battery market for power tools will wait for Chinese battery companies to seize the attack.
Ship electrification: Lithium battery demand exceeding 35GWh in 2025
Since the beginning of the year, leading power battery companies such as Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and Ningde Times have reported new progress in the field of electrified ships.
In March, the subsidiary of Guoxuan Hi-Tech won the first batch of orders for 3 sets of ship power lithium battery systems in 2020; in April, the construction of the "Kuokuozhen Princess Pure Electric Cruise Ship Construction" equipped with Yiwei Lithium Energy Lithium Iron Phosphate batteries started; in May , the "Deep Sea 01" round equipped with the lithium-ion power battery system of the Ningde era was successfully launched in Guangzhou...
A series of news indicates that the trend of domestic ship electrification is gradually rising.
GGII data shows that the penetration rate of ship electrification in 2018 is only 0.016%, which is in its infancy, which provides a broad space for the next electric penetration. From the electrification of ships in inland rivers and lakes to the electrification of tall ships, the penetration rate of ship electrification will accelerate.
According to the calculation of the penetration rate of lithium battery for ships in 2019, 2022 and 2025, respectively, 0.035%, 0.55% and 18.5%, the lithium battery market for electric ships will reach 35.41GWh by 2025.
Although the market is large, the electrification of ships still needs to face the facts: First, unlike the electrification of automobiles, the electrification of ships lacks a strong policy to promote it. At present, it is mainly driven by environmental protection pressure and green shipping; The battery capacity is large, resulting in a high initial investment.
3. Electric ships still have many problems such as short battery life, slow charging and inconvenience; 4. The distribution of domestic ships is relatively scattered, and local policies and requirements are different, making electrification more difficult.
Electrification of construction machinery: a long-term grand blueprint
The market process of electrification of construction machinery and lead to lithium is also a grand blueprint.
For example, electric mining trucks, Gaogong Lithium Electric learned that the current annual growth of mining trucks is about 10,000, and the battery capacity of bicycles is 100-300 kWh. If the new models are all electrified, with an average single-vehicle power of 150 kWh, it means that the annual battery increment space will reach 1.5GWH. And this does not include the electric replacement of the current stock market of mining cards.
GGII believes that under the influence of multiple factors such as the early implementation of the National VI Standard, the three-year plan for the blue sky, and the right of way/license, special vehicles will enter a positive development channel in 2020, especially in port, municipal, and short-distance mining and other application scenarios. The market size of electric heavy trucks in this segment will further increase.
For example, lithium-ion forklifts, GGII predicts that the output of lithium-ion forklifts in China will maintain a compound annual growth rate of more than 40% in the next three years, and its demand for lithium batteries will increase from 1.3GWh in 2017 to 5.4GWh in 2020. The compound annual growth rate exceeds 50%.
For example, AGV, in 2019, the sales volume of China's AGV market exceeded 28,000 units, and it showed a steady trend of growth. Although the market penetration rate of lithium batteries for AGV exceeded 60%, the consistency of battery cells, BMS performance, scattered product specifications/small orders, and after-sales costs And other problems are also calling for lithium battery players who have the ability to solve them.
High-tech Lithium Battery and High-tech Industry Research will hold the 13th High-tech Lithium Battery Industry Summit at Hyatt Regency Shenzhen Airport on June 10-11. More than 500 senior executives from all aspects of the industrial chain such as materials, equipment, and BMS will jointly conduct in-depth discussions on the trends and changes in the power battery industry in 2020.
At that time, the leaders of leading domestic lithium battery enterprises will also gather together to discuss the trends and demand changes of each segmented application market, and share the technology upgrading and thinking strategies of enterprises.
